A poll published today seems to point to such a scenario, although an individual poll does not necessarily reflect a trend.

However, a hung Parliament next year seems to be a likely outcome to me, given the swing that would be involved in the Tories gaining a workable majority.

Andrew Rawnsley outlines a number of possible implications arising from a hung Parliament, and the dilemmas that would face all the major parties.

It may well be that some of these situations could move the country to reform the UK voting system – something that is well overdue.